Bitcoin Power Law, floor and retirement simulator
TIME, PRICE AND THE MODEL
Bitcoin Power Law
From Bitcoin’s origin to today, with 5 years of conditional projections
The floor is a mathematical reference, not a guaranteed minimum.
β = 5.82 · floor = 0.42 × trend
Conditional model projection
Observed Bitcoin prices and model curves
— · USD · logarithmic scale
Hover over the chart or choose a date to explore the values.
For readability, the price axis starts at USD 0.01. Lower model values are outside the chart’s scale and remain available by selecting a date. There are no observed price quotes for 2009.
The model on a date
Choose a date within the displayed window. Future dates contain model values only.
Conditional model projection · The floor is a mathematical reference, not a guaranteed minimum.
Annual projections · next 5 years
Conditional model projection
| Selected date · UTC | Model floor · USD | Model trend · USD |
|---|
Formula, sources and limitations
Trend = 1.0117 × 10⁻¹⁷ × d⁵·⁸²; floor = 0.42 × trend. Values are in USD.P(d) = 1.0117 × 10⁻¹⁷ × d^5.82Floor(d) = 0.42 × P(d)
The chart starts at Bitcoin’s origin (2009). Actual prices begin with the first available observation; earlier dates show the model only. At genesis, d=0 cannot be displayed on a logarithmic scale: the curve starts the following day.
d is the number of days, including fractions, since 3 January 2009 at 00:00 UTC. Midnight is a convention of this implementation, not the exact mining time of the genesis block.
Santostasi variant published by BGeometrics. Coefficients remain fixed: they are not refitted to new prices each day.
The floor is 42% of the trend curve, not a confidence interval or probability. The price can fall below this line. Projections depend on the model remaining valid in the future; other calibrations produce different values.
While the page is open, the floor is recalculated every second as time advances. History is checked hourly; the source publishes daily observations.
Coin Metrics daily USD price: chart dates indicate the close at midnight UTC following the observed day.
RETIREMENT SIMULATOR · POWER LAW SCENARIO
When might your Bitcoin be enough?
Set your holdings, spending and contributions. The plan finds the first month when BTC could cover spending through your selected final age.
This is a hypothetical simulation, not a guaranteed retirement date. It assumes the price stays at or above the floor; the real price can fall below it.
Structure & cycles
Averages, momentum and returns calculated from closed Kraken candles. No forecasts.
Bitcoin, a long-term perspective
Weekly USD closing prices · — — — · Linear scale
Candles still forming are excluded. The high is the highest “high” value among the closed weekly and daily candles received from Kraken; it does not represent the global ATH across all exchanges. The chart shows closing prices, so it may not reach the intraperiod high.
How the indicators are calculated
SMA: arithmetic average of the latest 50 or 200 daily closing prices; SMA 200w: latest 200 weekly closing prices. The percentage comparison uses the latest available daily close, not the real-time ticker.
RSI 14 Wilder: initialized on the first 14 available changes, then smoothed with a factor of 1/14. RSI = 100 − 100 / (1 + average gains / average losses). Without losses it equals 100; for a completely flat series, 50 is used as a neutral convention. Values may differ slightly from platforms with a different initialization history.
Returns: (latest close / close exactly 30, 90 or 365 days earlier − 1) × 100. If the reference close is missing, the value remains unavailable. Weekly observations do not replace missing daily observations.
Drawdown: (latest daily close / observed “high” maximum − 1) × 100. Coverage begins with the first candle received from the provider, indicated above. “ALL” means all the history Kraken returns for that resolution.
Closed candles: candle start date + interval duration ≤ retrieval time. Dates on closing-price charts identify the start of the UTC interval. RSI thresholds and averages are descriptive: they are not automatic buy or sell signals.
How to read these data
This section calculates 50- and 200-day moving averages, Wilder’s 14-period RSI and the 200-week moving average. Comparisons use completed Kraken candles: a live ticker and a daily close are different observations. Checking the history every five minutes does not turn daily inputs into intraday indicators.
The Santostasi Power Law in the BGeometrics version starts in 2009; observed Coin Metrics prices begin in 2010, when available. The chart projects the next five years. While the page is open, the floor, 42% of the central curve, is recalculated each second using fixed coefficients. The retirement simulator takes age, BTC, spending, inflation and monthly purchases, including zero, with eight selectable currencies. It assumes monthly sales at the model floor until the chosen final age, over a finite horizon that may exceed the chart. The reference exchange rate stays fixed; taxes and fees are excluded. These are mathematical assumptions, not a guaranteed minimum market price or retirement income.